Retail trade data well above market expectations. Indicators strong for retail to continue. RBA expected to keep rates at 2.5%. Not expected change on Melbourne Cup day. Trade deficit expected to have fallen by 350 Million. Labour market data release expected unemployment rate to rise to 5.7%. Inflation expected to revise their near term inflation up slightly. Growth forecasts expected to be maintained.
USD expecting solid Q3 GDP growth expected. Euro expected to fall. Great British Pound also expected to fall. Euro inflation low at 1% not the 2%. Bank of England unlikely to make any change and keep interest rates at 0.5%. USD expected to rise against GBP, Euro and YEN. Aussie $ to end around 95US cents.
4th Nov 2013, CBA Global Markets Research: The Week ahead: RBA & Jobs